Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 58-65°F for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 13, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Bay Area guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting peaks in the upper 50s to low 60s at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO). This positioning stems from a recent cooling trend after record highs on April 4-5, with persistent marine stratus decks, moderate onshore flow (10-15 kt west-southwesterly winds), and a strong low-level temperature inversion suppressing daytime heating. Differentiation among leading outcomes hinges on stratus burn-off timing—earlier clearing could boost 62-65°F probabilities, while prolonged cloud cover favors 58-61°F—amid inherent forecast uncertainty two days out. Watch NWS updates and fresh 12Z models for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 13?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 13?
58-59°F 29%
60-61°F 24%
62-63°F 21%
64-65°F 18%
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
24%
60-61°F
28%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
18%
66°F or higher
12%
58-59°F 29%
60-61°F 24%
62-63°F 21%
64-65°F 18%
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
24%
60-61°F
28%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
18%
66°F or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 58-65°F for San Francisco's highest temperature on April 13, driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) Bay Area guidance and GFS/ECMWF model ensembles projecting peaks in the upper 50s to low 60s at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO). This positioning stems from a recent cooling trend after record highs on April 4-5, with persistent marine stratus decks, moderate onshore flow (10-15 kt west-southwesterly winds), and a strong low-level temperature inversion suppressing daytime heating. Differentiation among leading outcomes hinges on stratus burn-off timing—earlier clearing could boost 62-65°F probabilities, while prolonged cloud cover favors 58-61°F—amid inherent forecast uncertainty two days out. Watch NWS updates and fresh 12Z models for shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions