The district's Democratic lean, reflected in its D+3 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent April McClain Delaney holds a clear edge in the June 23 Democratic primary, leading recent polls by double digits over challenger David Trone. Republican primary contenders face structural headwinds in a district covering western Maryland counties and D.C. suburbs. While the June primaries and general election campaign could introduce variables such as turnout shifts or candidate performance, the current positioning aligns with historical patterns for this seat.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$15,174 거래량
$15,174 거래량
민주당
91%
공화당
6%
$15,174 거래량
$15,174 거래량
민주당
91%
공화당
6%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's Democratic lean, reflected in its D+3 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 90.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent April McClain Delaney holds a clear edge in the June 23 Democratic primary, leading recent polls by double digits over challenger David Trone. Republican primary contenders face structural headwinds in a district covering western Maryland counties and D.C. suburbs. While the June primaries and general election campaign could introduce variables such as turnout shifts or candidate performance, the current positioning aligns with historical patterns for this seat.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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