NY-25, centered on the Rochester area in Monroe County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins, including the incumbent's 60.8% win in 2024. Joseph Morelle, first elected in 2018 and now seeking another term, faces a low-profile Republican nominee in Virginia McIntyre while navigating a June 23 Democratic primary against two challengers. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district's underlying partisan composition. Trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory above 90% aligns with these structural factors. A late Democratic primary upset, candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unusually strong national Republican midterm environment could narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in recent weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$25,090 거래량
$25,090 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
4%
$25,090 거래량
$25,090 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$14,992 거래량
94%
공화당
$10,098 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-25, centered on the Rochester area in Monroe County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins, including the incumbent's 60.8% win in 2024. Joseph Morelle, first elected in 2018 and now seeking another term, faces a low-profile Republican nominee in Virginia McIntyre while navigating a June 23 Democratic primary against two challengers. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district's underlying partisan composition. Trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory above 90% aligns with these structural factors. A late Democratic primary upset, candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unusually strong national Republican midterm environment could narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$25,090종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-25, centered on the Rochester area in Monroe County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins, including the incumbent's 60.8% win in 2024. Joseph Morelle, first elected in 2018 and now seeking another term, faces a low-profile Republican nominee in Virginia McIntyre while navigating a June 23 Democratic primary against two challengers. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district's underlying partisan composition. Trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory above 90% aligns with these structural factors. A late Democratic primary upset, candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unusually strong national Republican midterm environment could narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$25,090종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-25, centered on the Rochester area in Monroe County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10 and has delivered consistent Democratic margins, including the incumbent's 60.8% win in 2024. Joseph Morelle, first elected in 2018 and now seeking another term, faces a low-profile Republican nominee in Virginia McIntyre while navigating a June 23 Democratic primary against two challengers. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican infrastructure and the district's underlying partisan composition. Trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory above 90% aligns with these structural factors. A late Democratic primary upset, candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unusually strong national Republican midterm environment could narrow the gap, though no such developments have surfaced in recent weeks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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