Utah's 3rd Congressional District's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+21, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a Republican House election winner, consistent with forecaster ratings of Solid Republican from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Celeste Maloy faces a competitive June 23 Republican primary against challenger Phil Lyman following her razor-thin 2024 primary survival, but the district's history of double-digit GOP general election margins—such as 66% in 2024—overwhelms the underfunded Democratic field led by Steve Merrill. Recent fundraising reports through early April show Maloy with substantial cash-on-hand advantages. While a post-primary GOP nominee scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave could shift odds, such barriers remain steep ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
16%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
$240 거래량
91%
Democratic Party
$0 거래량
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 3rd Congressional District's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+21, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a Republican House election winner, consistent with forecaster ratings of Solid Republican from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Celeste Maloy faces a competitive June 23 Republican primary against challenger Phil Lyman following her razor-thin 2024 primary survival, but the district's history of double-digit GOP general election margins—such as 66% in 2024—overwhelms the underfunded Democratic field led by Steve Merrill. Recent fundraising reports through early April show Maloy with substantial cash-on-hand advantages. While a post-primary GOP nominee scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave could shift odds, such barriers remain steep ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
거래량
$240종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 3rd Congressional District's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+21, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a Republican House election winner, consistent with forecaster ratings of Solid Republican from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Celeste Maloy faces a competitive June 23 Republican primary against challenger Phil Lyman following her razor-thin 2024 primary survival, but the district's history of double-digit GOP general election margins—such as 66% in 2024—overwhelms the underfunded Democratic field led by Steve Merrill. Recent fundraising reports through early April show Maloy with substantial cash-on-hand advantages. While a post-primary GOP nominee scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave could shift odds, such barriers remain steep ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$240종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 3rd Congressional District's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+21, anchors trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a Republican House election winner, consistent with forecaster ratings of Solid Republican from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Celeste Maloy faces a competitive June 23 Republican primary against challenger Phil Lyman following her razor-thin 2024 primary survival, but the district's history of double-digit GOP general election margins—such as 66% in 2024—overwhelms the underfunded Democratic field led by Steve Merrill. Recent fundraising reports through early April show Maloy with substantial cash-on-hand advantages. While a post-primary GOP nominee scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave could shift odds, such barriers remain steep ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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