Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters implied probabilities tightly around 28–31°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 13, driven by China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global model ensembles (GFS, ECMWF) projecting peaks near 29°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge over the South China Sea, fostering southerly winds and warm advection. Recent observations underscore cloud cover as the key differentiator: overcast skies April 7–8 suppressed highs to 26–27°C, partly clear conditions April 10 boosted to 30°C, and cloudy April 11 reached 29°C, aligning with historical April variability where insolation and sea breeze modulation swing outcomes by 2–3°C. The slight 29°C lead (28.5%) reflects median ensemble output, while 30°C (25%) gains if marine stratus clears; new CMA updates and 00Z model runs April 12 could shift sentiment ahead of resolution via Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ) observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 13?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 13?
29°C 36%
28°C 31%
30°C 26%
31°C 18%
$12,061 交易量
$12,061 交易量
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
25%
29°C
29%
30°C
26%
31°C
18%
32°C or higher
4%
29°C 36%
28°C 31%
30°C 26%
31°C 18%
$12,061 交易量
$12,061 交易量
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
25%
29°C
29%
30°C
26%
31°C
18%
32°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters implied probabilities tightly around 28–31°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 13, driven by China Meteorological Administration forecasts and global model ensembles (GFS, ECMWF) projecting peaks near 29°C under a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge over the South China Sea, fostering southerly winds and warm advection. Recent observations underscore cloud cover as the key differentiator: overcast skies April 7–8 suppressed highs to 26–27°C, partly clear conditions April 10 boosted to 30°C, and cloudy April 11 reached 29°C, aligning with historical April variability where insolation and sea breeze modulation swing outcomes by 2–3°C. The slight 29°C lead (28.5%) reflects median ensemble output, while 30°C (25%) gains if marine stratus clears; new CMA updates and 00Z model runs April 12 could shift sentiment ahead of resolution via Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ) observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions