Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) converge on a Shanghai high temperature of 20-21°C on April 17 under partly cloudy skies with light southeasterly winds around 10-15 km/h, driving the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 34.5% and 32.5% implied probabilities. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability from lingering moisture after today's showers—persistent low clouds capping solar insolation at 20°C, versus partial clearing enabling 21°C—against a historical mid-April baseline of 19°C. Short-range model uncertainty (±1°C) hinges on boundary layer mixing and timing of any diurnal heating, with overnight updates and official station readings resolving tomorrow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月17日上海气温最高?
4月17日上海气温最高?
20°C 35%
21°C 33%
22°C 13.1%
19°C 12%
$43,328 交易量
$43,328 交易量
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
12%
20°C
35%
21°C
33%
22°C
13%
23°C或更高
3%
20°C 35%
21°C 33%
22°C 13.1%
19°C 12%
$43,328 交易量
$43,328 交易量
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
12%
20°C
35%
21°C
33%
22°C
13%
23°C或更高
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) converge on a Shanghai high temperature of 20-21°C on April 17 under partly cloudy skies with light southeasterly winds around 10-15 km/h, driving the razor-thin trader split between those outcomes at 34.5% and 32.5% implied probabilities. Key differentiators include cloud cover variability from lingering moisture after today's showers—persistent low clouds capping solar insolation at 20°C, versus partial clearing enabling 21°C—against a historical mid-April baseline of 19°C. Short-range model uncertainty (±1°C) hinges on boundary layer mixing and timing of any diurnal heating, with overnight updates and official station readings resolving tomorrow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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