Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 38% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the historical global baseline of roughly 8-12 such events per week per USGS statistics, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation on tectonic fault systems. As of April 16, USGS data confirms at least four qualifying events: M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13; M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on April 13; M5.5 Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands on April 13; and M6.0 south of Kermadec Islands on April 16, with three days left in the window. No unusual seismic swarms or precursors elevate risks beyond steady Ring of Fire activity; final USGS catalog updates through April 19 will determine resolution based on reviewed moment magnitudes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月13日至4月19日发生了多少次5.5级或以上的地震？
4月13日至4月19日发生了多少次5.5级或以上的地震？
>9 37%
8 16%
9 15%
7 13%
$128,504 交易量
$128,504 交易量
2026-04-19
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
4%
6
7%
7
13%
8
16%
9
15%
>9
37%
>9 37%
8 16%
9 15%
7 13%
$128,504 交易量
$128,504 交易量
2026-04-19
≤3
$84,492 交易量
<1%
4
$11,191 交易量
<1%
5
$3,244 交易量
4%
6
$1,790 交易量
7%
7
$2,233 交易量
13%
8
$2,961 交易量
16%
9
$1,788 交易量
15%
>9
$20,804 交易量
37%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 38% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the historical global baseline of roughly 8-12 such events per week per USGS statistics, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation on tectonic fault systems. As of April 16, USGS data confirms at least four qualifying events: M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13; M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on April 13; M5.5 Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands on April 13; and M6.0 south of Kermadec Islands on April 16, with three days left in the window. No unusual seismic swarms or precursors elevate risks beyond steady Ring of Fire activity; final USGS catalog updates through April 19 will determine resolution based on reviewed moment magnitudes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
交易量
$128,504结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 38% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the historical global baseline of roughly 8-12 such events per week per USGS statistics, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation on tectonic fault systems. As of April 16, USGS data confirms at least four qualifying events: M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13; M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on April 13; M5.5 Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands on April 13; and M6.0 south of Kermadec Islands on April 16, with three days left in the window. No unusual seismic swarms or precursors elevate risks beyond steady Ring of Fire activity; final USGS catalog updates through April 19 will determine resolution based on reviewed moment magnitudes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$128,504结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 38% probability for more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, reflecting the historical global baseline of roughly 8-12 such events per week per USGS statistics, governed by the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation on tectonic fault systems. As of April 16, USGS data confirms at least four qualifying events: M5.7 near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13; M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga on April 13; M5.5 Pagan region, Northern Mariana Islands on April 13; and M6.0 south of Kermadec Islands on April 16, with three days left in the window. No unusual seismic swarms or precursors elevate risks beyond steady Ring of Fire activity; final USGS catalog updates through April 19 will determine resolution based on reviewed moment magnitudes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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