Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees. Incumbent Representative Ed Case holds a commanding position in the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary according to 2025 polling, while the Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a Honolulu-centered district that delivered over 70 percent for Democrats in 2024. Forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus pricing aligns with this baseline, as only an unforeseen primary upset producing a significantly weaker Democratic nominee or a late-cycle scandal altering turnout patterns would realistically open any path for Republican gains in November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$27,886 거래량
$27,886 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$27,886 거래량
$27,886 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$14,477 거래량
95%
Republican Party
$13,408 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees. Incumbent Representative Ed Case holds a commanding position in the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary according to 2025 polling, while the Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a Honolulu-centered district that delivered over 70 percent for Democrats in 2024. Forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus pricing aligns with this baseline, as only an unforeseen primary upset producing a significantly weaker Democratic nominee or a late-cycle scandal altering turnout patterns would realistically open any path for Republican gains in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$27,886종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees. Incumbent Representative Ed Case holds a commanding position in the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary according to 2025 polling, while the Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a Honolulu-centered district that delivered over 70 percent for Democrats in 2024. Forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus pricing aligns with this baseline, as only an unforeseen primary upset producing a significantly weaker Democratic nominee or a late-cycle scandal altering turnout patterns would realistically open any path for Republican gains in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$27,886종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains one of the strongest Democratic leans in the country, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees. Incumbent Representative Ed Case holds a commanding position in the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary according to 2025 polling, while the Republican nominee faces structural barriers in a Honolulu-centered district that delivered over 70 percent for Democrats in 2024. Forecasters rate the general election Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus pricing aligns with this baseline, as only an unforeseen primary upset producing a significantly weaker Democratic nominee or a late-cycle scandal altering turnout patterns would realistically open any path for Republican gains in November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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