Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to retain Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by incumbent Rep. Ed Case's strong re-election bid announced in July 2025, his dominant fundraising lead over challengers as of mid-April 2026, and the district's deep-blue history with Case securing 80%+ margins in recent cycles amid Oahu's urban Democratic stronghold. No prominent Republican candidate has emerged, reinforcing the safe seat status per Cook Political Report ratings. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal derailing the Democratic nominee post-primary, exceptional GOP recruitment paired with a national Republican midterm wave, or unforeseen voter turnout shifts in this low-competition race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$6,167 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$2,120 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to retain Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by incumbent Rep. Ed Case's strong re-election bid announced in July 2025, his dominant fundraising lead over challengers as of mid-April 2026, and the district's deep-blue history with Case securing 80%+ margins in recent cycles amid Oahu's urban Democratic stronghold. No prominent Republican candidate has emerged, reinforcing the safe seat status per Cook Political Report ratings. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal derailing the Democratic nominee post-primary, exceptional GOP recruitment paired with a national Republican midterm wave, or unforeseen voter turnout shifts in this low-competition race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
거래량
$8,287종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to retain Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by incumbent Rep. Ed Case's strong re-election bid announced in July 2025, his dominant fundraising lead over challengers as of mid-April 2026, and the district's deep-blue history with Case securing 80%+ margins in recent cycles amid Oahu's urban Democratic stronghold. No prominent Republican candidate has emerged, reinforcing the safe seat status per Cook Political Report ratings. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal derailing the Democratic nominee post-primary, exceptional GOP recruitment paired with a national Republican midterm wave, or unforeseen voter turnout shifts in this low-competition race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$8,287종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% implied probability to retain Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by incumbent Rep. Ed Case's strong re-election bid announced in July 2025, his dominant fundraising lead over challengers as of mid-April 2026, and the district's deep-blue history with Case securing 80%+ margins in recent cycles amid Oahu's urban Democratic stronghold. No prominent Republican candidate has emerged, reinforcing the safe seat status per Cook Political Report ratings. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal derailing the Democratic nominee post-primary, exceptional GOP recruitment paired with a national Republican midterm wave, or unforeseen voter turnout shifts in this low-competition race.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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