Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat's commanding position in the deeply Democratic NY-13 district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+32 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner on November 3, 2026. Espaillat crushed his 2024 Republican opponent 83%-17%, and recent filings post-April 6 deadline reveal a crowded but underfunded Democratic primary field on June 23—challengers like Darializa Avila Chevalier hold minimal cash compared to his $1.1 million—while no credible Republican has emerged. This structural edge and fractured opposition cement the frontrunner status, though a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Espaillat scandal, or massive national GOP wave could narrow the gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$20,752 거래량
$20,752 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
94%
공화당
5%
$20,752 거래량
$20,752 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$9,484 거래량
94%
공화당
$11,268 거래량
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat's commanding position in the deeply Democratic NY-13 district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+32 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner on November 3, 2026. Espaillat crushed his 2024 Republican opponent 83%-17%, and recent filings post-April 6 deadline reveal a crowded but underfunded Democratic primary field on June 23—challengers like Darializa Avila Chevalier hold minimal cash compared to his $1.1 million—while no credible Republican has emerged. This structural edge and fractured opposition cement the frontrunner status, though a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Espaillat scandal, or massive national GOP wave could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$20,752종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat's commanding position in the deeply Democratic NY-13 district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+32 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner on November 3, 2026. Espaillat crushed his 2024 Republican opponent 83%-17%, and recent filings post-April 6 deadline reveal a crowded but underfunded Democratic primary field on June 23—challengers like Darializa Avila Chevalier hold minimal cash compared to his $1.1 million—while no credible Republican has emerged. This structural edge and fractured opposition cement the frontrunner status, though a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Espaillat scandal, or massive national GOP wave could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$20,752종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat's commanding position in the deeply Democratic NY-13 district, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+32 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 93.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner on November 3, 2026. Espaillat crushed his 2024 Republican opponent 83%-17%, and recent filings post-April 6 deadline reveal a crowded but underfunded Democratic primary field on June 23—challengers like Darializa Avila Chevalier hold minimal cash compared to his $1.1 million—while no credible Republican has emerged. This structural edge and fractured opposition cement the frontrunner status, though a primary upset yielding a weakened nominee, Espaillat scandal, or massive national GOP wave could narrow the gap.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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