Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in the NY-18 race, benefiting from the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and his prior double-digit general-election margin. With both party primaries set for June 23 and effectively uncontested—allowing Ryan and Republican Jackie Auringer to advance automatically—traders see limited opportunity for an upset before the November 3 general election. A single recent poll showed Ryan’s party ahead by seven points, consistent with the market’s 64.9% implied probability for Democrats versus 13.7% for Republicans. The absence of high-profile challengers or major campaign developments in the past month has kept probabilities stable, reflecting the seat’s modest Democratic lean and structural advantages for the sitting member.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$33,316 거래량
$33,316 거래량
2026.11.04
민주당
62%
공화당
12%
$33,316 거래량
$33,316 거래량
2026.11.04
민주당
$32,013 거래량
62%
공화당
$1,303 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in the NY-18 race, benefiting from the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and his prior double-digit general-election margin. With both party primaries set for June 23 and effectively uncontested—allowing Ryan and Republican Jackie Auringer to advance automatically—traders see limited opportunity for an upset before the November 3 general election. A single recent poll showed Ryan’s party ahead by seven points, consistent with the market’s 64.9% implied probability for Democrats versus 13.7% for Republicans. The absence of high-profile challengers or major campaign developments in the past month has kept probabilities stable, reflecting the seat’s modest Democratic lean and structural advantages for the sitting member.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
거래량
$33,316종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in the NY-18 race, benefiting from the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and his prior double-digit general-election margin. With both party primaries set for June 23 and effectively uncontested—allowing Ryan and Republican Jackie Auringer to advance automatically—traders see limited opportunity for an upset before the November 3 general election. A single recent poll showed Ryan’s party ahead by seven points, consistent with the market’s 64.9% implied probability for Democrats versus 13.7% for Republicans. The absence of high-profile challengers or major campaign developments in the past month has kept probabilities stable, reflecting the seat’s modest Democratic lean and structural advantages for the sitting member.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$33,316종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in the NY-18 race, benefiting from the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and his prior double-digit general-election margin. With both party primaries set for June 23 and effectively uncontested—allowing Ryan and Republican Jackie Auringer to advance automatically—traders see limited opportunity for an upset before the November 3 general election. A single recent poll showed Ryan’s party ahead by seven points, consistent with the market’s 64.9% implied probability for Democrats versus 13.7% for Republicans. The absence of high-profile challengers or major campaign developments in the past month has kept probabilities stable, reflecting the seat’s modest Democratic lean and structural advantages for the sitting member.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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