Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for a 13°C high in Istanbul on April 17, closely followed by 12°C at 30%, as the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster maxima around 12–14°C at Istanbul Airport (NOAA measurement site). This positioning stems from a persistent cold air mass advecting from the Balkans over the past week, northerly winds, and extensive cloud cover suppressing solar heating, mirroring April 15's verified 12°C high. Turkish State Meteorological Service notes very cloudy conditions with city highs near 17°C, but airport exposures often yield cooler readings amid model consensus on subdued daytime warming. Overnight model runs and early April 17 observations could refine these odds amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
13°C 39%
12°C 28%
14°C 15%
11°C 12%
最新
$14,962 交易量
最新
$14,962 交易量
2026-04-17
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
12%
12°C
28%
13°C
39%
14°C
15%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 39%
12°C 28%
14°C 15%
11°C 12%
最新
$14,962 交易量
最新
$14,962 交易量
2026-04-17
8°C or below
$1,660 交易量
<1%
9°C
$1,547 交易量
<1%
10°C
$2,359 交易量
1%
11°C
$2,738 交易量
12%
12°C
$510 交易量
28%
13°C
$581 交易量
39%
14°C
$569 交易量
15%
15°C
$1,540 交易量
2%
16°C
$1,194 交易量
1%
17°C
$1,101 交易量
<1%
18°C or higher
$1,258 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for a 13°C high in Istanbul on April 17, closely followed by 12°C at 30%, as the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster maxima around 12–14°C at Istanbul Airport (NOAA measurement site). This positioning stems from a persistent cold air mass advecting from the Balkans over the past week, northerly winds, and extensive cloud cover suppressing solar heating, mirroring April 15's verified 12°C high. Turkish State Meteorological Service notes very cloudy conditions with city highs near 17°C, but airport exposures often yield cooler readings amid model consensus on subdued daytime warming. Overnight model runs and early April 17 observations could refine these odds amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
交易量
$14,962结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for a 13°C high in Istanbul on April 17, closely followed by 12°C at 30%, as the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster maxima around 12–14°C at Istanbul Airport (NOAA measurement site). This positioning stems from a persistent cold air mass advecting from the Balkans over the past week, northerly winds, and extensive cloud cover suppressing solar heating, mirroring April 15's verified 12°C high. Turkish State Meteorological Service notes very cloudy conditions with city highs near 17°C, but airport exposures often yield cooler readings amid model consensus on subdued daytime warming. Overnight model runs and early April 17 observations could refine these odds amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$14,962结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for a 13°C high in Istanbul on April 17, closely followed by 12°C at 30%, as the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster maxima around 12–14°C at Istanbul Airport (NOAA measurement site). This positioning stems from a persistent cold air mass advecting from the Balkans over the past week, northerly winds, and extensive cloud cover suppressing solar heating, mirroring April 15's verified 12°C high. Turkish State Meteorological Service notes very cloudy conditions with city highs near 17°C, but airport exposures often yield cooler readings amid model consensus on subdued daytime warming. Overnight model runs and early April 17 observations could refine these odds amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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