Recent redistricting under California's updated congressional map has shifted CA-01 toward a Democratic lean by incorporating additional Democratic-leaning areas, creating a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus. Democratic candidates including state Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney lead early polling and fundraising ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher. This positioning aligns with historical base rates for similarly redrawn districts. A Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election remains the dominant outlook, though late developments such as primary surprises, turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or external campaign events could still narrow the margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$22,046 Vol.
$22,046 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
6%
$22,046 Vol.
$22,046 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,173 Vol.
92%
共和党
$7,873 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting under California's updated congressional map has shifted CA-01 toward a Democratic lean by incorporating additional Democratic-leaning areas, creating a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus. Democratic candidates including state Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney lead early polling and fundraising ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher. This positioning aligns with historical base rates for similarly redrawn districts. A Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election remains the dominant outlook, though late developments such as primary surprises, turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or external campaign events could still narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$22,046終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent redistricting under California's updated congressional map has shifted CA-01 toward a Democratic lean by incorporating additional Democratic-leaning areas, creating a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus. Democratic candidates including state Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney lead early polling and fundraising ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher. This positioning aligns with historical base rates for similarly redrawn districts. A Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election remains the dominant outlook, though late developments such as primary surprises, turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or external campaign events could still narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$22,046終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent redistricting under California's updated congressional map has shifted CA-01 toward a Democratic lean by incorporating additional Democratic-leaning areas, creating a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus. Democratic candidates including state Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney lead early polling and fundraising ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher. This positioning aligns with historical base rates for similarly redrawn districts. A Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election remains the dominant outlook, though late developments such as primary surprises, turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or external campaign events could still narrow the margin.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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