Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning profile with roughly 41% Democratic and 31% Republican registration, producing a D+7 partisan voting index. This structural change elevated the general election matchup between Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, who advanced from the June 2026 primary, and prompted unanimous "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline fundamentals and limited recent developments that might alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include late-campaign scandals, health events affecting a candidate, or unusually large turnout swings in the final weeks before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$35,006 Vol.
$35,006 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$35,006 Vol.
$35,006 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$26,284 Vol.
96%
共和党
$8,722 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning profile with roughly 41% Democratic and 31% Republican registration, producing a D+7 partisan voting index. This structural change elevated the general election matchup between Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, who advanced from the June 2026 primary, and prompted unanimous "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline fundamentals and limited recent developments that might alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include late-campaign scandals, health events affecting a candidate, or unusually large turnout swings in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$35,006終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning profile with roughly 41% Democratic and 31% Republican registration, producing a D+7 partisan voting index. This structural change elevated the general election matchup between Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, who advanced from the June 2026 primary, and prompted unanimous "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline fundamentals and limited recent developments that might alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include late-campaign scandals, health events affecting a candidate, or unusually large turnout swings in the final weeks before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$35,006終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District to a Democratic-leaning profile with roughly 41% Democratic and 31% Republican registration, producing a D+7 partisan voting index. This structural change elevated the general election matchup between Republican James Gallagher and Democrat Mike McGuire, who advanced from the June 2026 primary, and prompted unanimous "Solid" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these baseline fundamentals and limited recent developments that might alter the trajectory. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include late-campaign scandals, health events affecting a candidate, or unusually large turnout swings in the final weeks before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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